Revisiting the association between women’s employment and separation: An analysis of harmonised longitudinal surveys in six countries

Konrad Turek and Matthijs Kalmijn
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Konrad Turek: Tilburg University
Matthijs Kalmijn: Nederlands Interdisciplinair Demografisch Instituut (NIDI)

Demographic Research, 2026, vol. 54, issue 32, 1009-1050

Abstract: Background: Much debate exists about how women’s employment interacts with divorce and separation, with conflicting findings and opposing theoretical interpretations. Objective: This study revisits the employment–separation link from a dynamic perspective, examining how employment influences separation risk (independence), whether women increase employment before separation (anticipation), and how they adjust work hours afterward (adjustment). Methods: Data come from the Comparative Panel File (harmonised panel data) from six countries (Australia, Germany, Russia, South Korea, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom), covering the 1990–2021 period, 73,213 married or cohabiting women, and 9,847 separations. Discrete-time event-history models estimate separation risks, and longitudinal growth models track employment changes before and after separation. Results: Across all countries, employed women – especially women employed full-time – face a higher separation risk than non-employed women. These associations persist after controlling for potential confounders such as household income, health, life satisfaction, and religiosity. Part-time work shows weaker but still positive associations with separation. Employment trajectories indicate limited changes around separation, though modest pre-separation increases in work engagement appear in some contexts. Conclusions: The study provides evidence for the independence hypothesis regarding the influence of women’s employment on separation across diverse societal contexts, with more mixed support for anticipation and adjustment effects. Contribution: By integrating three theoretical mechanisms – independence, anticipation, and adjustment – into a single dynamic analysis for multiple countries, this study advances understanding of how employment and separation interact. Using large-scale, harmonised prospective longitudinal data, it addresses limitations in prior research and clarifies long-standing inconsistencies. The findings highlight that despite shifting gender norms, full-time employment remains a critical factor shaping women’s ability to leave a union.

Keywords: divorce; separation; women; comparative analysis; independence effect (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J1 Z0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:dem:demres:v:54:y:2026:i:32

DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2026.54.32

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