A diminishing population whose every cohort more than replaces itself

Robert Schoen and Stefan H. Jonsson
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Robert Schoen: Pennsylvania State University
Stefan H. Jonsson: Pennsylvania State University

Demographic Research, 2003, vol. 9, issue 6, 111-118

Abstract: We observe that a dynamic population model can have period fertility that is always below replacement and cohort fertility that is always above replacement. We ask whether such a paradoxical population will get larger or smaller, and show that it must become smaller. Cohort replacement does not imply population replacement, and emphasizing fertility timing and cohort fertility ignores the issue of relative cohort size. The resolution of this apparent paradox reinforces the importance of the level of period fertility in demographic analysis.

Keywords: fertility; cohort analysis; cohort fertility; period fertility; fertility timing; Bongaarts-Feeney adjusted fertility; dynamic population model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J1 Z0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2003
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:dem:demres:v:9:y:2003:i:6

DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2003.9.6

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