Convergences and divergences in mortality

Jacques Vallin and France Meslé ()
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Jacques Vallin: Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED)

Demographic Research Special Collections, 2004, vol. 2, issue 2, 11-44

Abstract: Abdel Omran's 1971 theory of "Epidemiologic Transition" was the first attempt to account for the extraordinary advances in health care made in industrialized countries since the 18th century. In the framework of the Demographic Transition, it implied a general convergence of life expectancies toward a limit imposed by the new epidemiological features of modern societies. However, important failures, occurred in the past decades (mainly the health crisis in Eastern Europe and AIDS in Africa), seem to have stopped that process of convergence. In fact such failures do not really contradict the theory. The latter is much more ruined by the unexpected dramatic improvement in the field of cardiovascular disease experienced since the seventies, which results in a new step of a more general process. On the basis of the broader concept of “Health Transition” initiated by Julio Frenk et al., the present paper tries to rethink the full process in term of divergence/convergence sequences inferred by successive major changes in health technologies and strategies.

Keywords: mortality; cause of death; epidemiologic transition; mortality trends; health transition; demographic convergences (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J1 Z0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (63)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:dem:drspec:v:2:y:2004:i:2

DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2004.S2.2

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