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Coronavirus Plunges the German Economy into Recession: DIW Economic Outlook

Claus Michelsen, Marius Clemens (), Max Hanisch, Simon Junker, Konstantin Kholodilin () and Thore Schlaak

DIW Weekly Report, 2020, vol. 10, issue 12, 184-190

Abstract: The spread of the coronavirus worldwide is exerting considerable pressure on the economy. Compounded by the lack of quality data, model uncertainty, and uncertainty over government responses, economic forecasts are subject to even greater uncertainty than usual. It is difficult to predict how the pandemic will progress. Figures on the impact of the virus, obtained by comparing it with previous epidemics, for example, provide rough approximations at best. Based on the model calculations, Germany can expect to suffer huge economic losses. Given the information available, it is reasonable to assume that economic output will actually be one percentage point lower than recently projected in the winter outlook. As a result, GDP will decline by 0.1 percent this year. If the higher number of working days this year is factored in, in line with general international practice, economic output will fall by as much as 0.5 percent. The corona pandemic will plunge Germany into recession, albeit the exact size of the downturn remains unclear.

Keywords: Business cycle forecast; ecoomic outlook (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E66 F01 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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DIW Weekly Report is currently edited by Pio Baake, Tomaso Duso, Marcel Fratzscher, Peter Haan, Claudia Kemfert, Alexander Kritikos, Alexander Kriwoluzky, Stefan Liebig, Lukas Menkhoff, Claus Michelsen, Karsten Neuhoff, Carsten Schröder, C. Katharina Spieß, Katharina Wrohlich, Gritje Hartmann and Wolf-Peter Schill

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