Output Growth and Monetary Policy Interaction in a Common Monetary Area: Forecasting with VEC Models in Namibia, Lesotho, South Africa and Swaziland, 1981-2004

Yohane Khamfula ()

Applied Econometrics and International Development, 2006, vol. 6, issue 2

Abstract: In this study, we empirically attempt to investigate output growth forecasts as a result of dynamic interplay between money supplies and output growths of Southern African Common Monetary Area (SACMA) countries using Vector Error Correction Models (VECM). In general, the results show that the forecasts for output growths in SACMA countries are quite similar to the actual values. Generally, the money supply changes have had a positive effect on output growths in all these SACMA countries. This may suggest that symmetric monetary shocks dominate in SACMA economies, which is a good indicator for an optimal currency area that would foster development in the region.

Keywords: Common monetary area; Multivariate dynamic forecasts; Output growth; Money supply; Cointegration; Vector Error correction model. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C13 E31 E61 F32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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