DYNAMICS OF THE SELIC INTEREST RATES-TARGET IN BRAZIL

Sidney Caetano and Geraldo Silva Jr. ()
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Geraldo Silva Jr.: Department of Economics, Federal University of Vicosa-MG, Brazil

Economics Bulletin, 2007, vol. 5, issue 19, 1-12

Abstract: The present work analyzes the discrete dynamic of the SELIC interest rates-target defined in the meetings of the Brazilian Monetary Policy Council (COPOM). The probit model methodology was applied in order to study the probability of Central Bank increase or decrease SELIC-target interest rate. We found that the inclusion of a fiscal (primary fiscal surplus/GDP) and the lagged output gap variables must be considered important ones to COPOM's decision making processes.

JEL-codes: E0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007-10-06
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-07e00004

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