A Short Note on the Nowcasting and the Forecasting of Euro-area GDP Using Non-Parametric Techniques

Dominique Guégan (dguegan@univ-paris1.fr) and Patrick Rakotomarolahy (rakotopapa@yahoo.fr)
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Dominique Guégan: PSE CES--MSE University Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne
Patrick Rakotomarolahy: CES--MSE University Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne

Economics Bulletin, 2010, vol. 30, issue 1, 508-518

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to introduce a new methodology to forecast the monthly economic indicators used in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) modelling in order to improve the forecasting accuracy. Our approach is based on multivariate k-nearest neighbors method and radial basis function method for which we provide new theoretical results. We apply these two methods to compute the quarter GDP on the Euro-zone, comparing our approach, with GDP obtained when we estimate the monthly indicators with a linear model, which is often used as a benchmark.

Keywords: Multivariate k-Nearest Neighbor; Radial Basis Functions; Non-Parametric Forecasts; Economic indicators; GDP; Euro area. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C1 C4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010-02-10
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2010/Volume30/EB-10-V30-I1-P46.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: A Short Note on the Nowcasting and the Forecasting of Euro-area GDP Using Non-Parametric Techniques (2010)
Working Paper: A short note on the nowcasting and the forecasting of Euro-area GDP using non-parametric techniques (2010)
Working Paper: A short note on the nowcasting and the forecasting of Euro-area GDP using non-parametric techniques (2010)
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