Scattered Fiscal Forecasts

Georg Stadtmann (), Christian Pierdzioch and Jan Ruelke ()
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Georg Stadtmann: Europa-Universität Viadrina and University of Southern Denmark
Jan Ruelke: WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management

Economics Bulletin, 2011, vol. 31, issue 3, 2558-2568

Abstract: The banking debacle of 2007/2008 and the Greek sovereign debt crisis have witnessed that forecasts of government balances play a major role for how participants in financial markets assess the sustainability of government budget deficits. But how do forecasters form their government-balance forecasts? Do forecasters deliver unbiased forecasts? Our results imply that they do not. On the contrary, using more than 100,000 forecasts of government balances for 38 countries we report strong evidence of forecaster anti-herding, i.e. forecaster scatter their projections around the consensus forecast.

Keywords: Government balance; Survey data; Forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D8 E6 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-09-08
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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