An application of the natural trading partner hypothesis to New Zealand- ASEAN trade

Shamim Shakur () and Chris Nees ()
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Shamim Shakur: Massey University
Chris Nees: New Zealand Treasury

Economics Bulletin, 2011, vol. 31, issue 4, 3077-3088

Abstract: The agreement establishing the ASEAN, Australia and New Zealand Free Trade Area (AANZFTA) entered into force in 2010. Full economic impacts of the agreement will not be known until 2020 when 99% of existing tariffs will be phased out in major markets among signatory nations. Using pre-agreement data, this research applies the natural trading partner hypothesis to make an ex-ante assessment of the agreement from New Zealand's perspective. Estimates of key indices show that the results are mixed and the overall welfare gains to New Zealand, if any, are likely to be small.

Keywords: Natural trading partner; ASEAN; New Zealand; Free trade agreement (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-11-06
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