A note on predicting recessions in the euro area using real M1

Jens Boysen-Hogrefe

Economics Bulletin, 2012, vol. 32, issue 2, 1291-1301

Abstract: Real M1 is a renowned leading indicator used to forecast real economic activity. This note provides evidence that real M1 is also a suitable recession indicator that gave a clear and early signal for the Great Recession as long as changes in money demand are controlled for.

Keywords: Predicting recessions; Probit; narrow money; real M1; euro area (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C5 E3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012-04-26
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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