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Can analyst predict stock market crashes?

Terence Tai Leung Chong () and Xiaolei Wang ()
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Xiaolei Wang: Department of Economics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong

Economics Bulletin, 2013, vol. 33, issue 1, 158-166

Abstract: The frequency of financial market turmoil has been rising over the past two decades. While the incidence of market turmoil has increased, the performance of analysts during tumultuous times has not received much attention in the literature. This paper examines whether the accuracy of analyst forecasts on stock returns varies during tumultuous times. Our results indicate that analysts' forecast performance during stock market crashes drops significantly.

Keywords: Analyst forecast dispersion; Stock market crash; Excess returns. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013-01-14
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