A comparison of different forecasting models of the international trade in India

Aviral Tiwari, Claudiu Albulescu () and Phouphet Kyophilavong

Economics Bulletin, 2014, vol. 34, issue 1, 420-429

Abstract: We assess the out-of-sample forecasting performance of eight models on Indian real exports and imports. The results, in large part show only a slight increase or no clear increase in India's international trade. However, the results are very robust when comparing the predictions in terms of exports and imports. In both the cases, the ARIMA and ETS models perform better in terms of the accuracy fit.

Keywords: Trade; Forecasting; India; Exponential smoothing; Holt–Winters; Box–Jenkins (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C5 F1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014-03-04
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