A synthetic control approach on Chile's transition to democracy

Daniel Uhr (), Julia Uhr and Regis Ely
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Daniel Uhr: Applied Economics Post-Graduation Program. Federal University of Pelotas, Brazil.

Economics Bulletin, 2017, vol. 37, issue 3, 2219-2233

Abstract: We use a synthetic control approach for performing a case study of the impact of Economic Reforms and Democracy Openness on Chile's GDP per capita. We use data available at the World Bank Open Data from 1976 to 2014 for different countries in order to build a synthetic “authoritarian Chile†and compare it with the “real Chile†. We find a significant positive effect of the process of re-democratization on Chile's long-term GDP per capita. The results are robust to placebo tests and time series methods such as endogenous structural break tests and an analysis of causal impact based on the forecasts of a Bayesian Structural Time Series model.

Keywords: Re-democratization; Economic Growth; Chile; Synthetic Control. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D9 E1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017-09-27
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