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Do Covid-19 mobility restrictions affect economic uncertainty in Italy? Evidence from a SVAR approach

Chiara Casoli (), Luca Pedini and Francesco Valentini
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Chiara Casoli: Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei

Economics Bulletin, 2021, vol. 41, issue 4, 2418-2432

Abstract: The implications of Covid-19 are severe not only in terms of healthcare, but also from a socio-economic perspective. However, its impact on economic systems and the evaluation of related policy decisions are difficult to assess due to lack of related data. One possibility is to focus on the epidemic induced economic uncertainty: in this article we investigate the links between individual mobility limitations due to the pandemic outbreak and the resulting economic distrust in Italy, measured with an ad hoc Google Trend index. We propose an analysis based on Structural Vector Autoregressive models discovering a persistent surge in economic uncertainty as a response to Covid-19 and mobility shocks.

Keywords: Covid-19; mobility restrictions; economic uncertainty; structural vector autoregression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E6 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-12-29
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