Poverty vulnerability: The role of poverty lines in the post-pandemic era

Jaime Lara and Fabian Mendez-Ramos ()
Additional contact information
Fabian Mendez-Ramos: World Bank
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Fabian Mendez Ramos

Economics Bulletin, 2021, vol. 41, issue 4, 2690-2696

Abstract: This paper introduces the results of a novel methodology to estimate country-specific macro-poverty vulnerability. The new poverty vulnerability risk measure considers historical information, statistical significances, poverty lines, and forecasting horizons to proxy exposure to poverty. The application uses aggregated household data and macroeconomic information of 154 countries comprising 97% of the world population. Using the absolute poverty line of US$1.90, a COVID-19 pandemic counterfactual shows that, by 2021, the global expected number of people vulnerable to income impoverishment increased from 205 to 245 million people. Likewise, the poverty level rises from a baseline of 632 to a COVID-19 median counterfactual of 748 million people in 2021. Alternative poverty lines studied in the literature also indicate negative changes in macro-vulnerability performances and poverty levels across.

Keywords: Poverty Vulnerability; Poverty Line; COVID-19; Income Distribution (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I3 O1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-12-29
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2021/Volume41/EB-21-V41-I4-P232.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-21-01170

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Economics Bulletin from AccessEcon
Bibliographic data for series maintained by John P. Conley ().