Estimating the trajectories of the Okun's coefficient and NAIRU with the rolling regression method: Evidence from Lebanon

Jean-François Verne ()
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Jean-François Verne: Université Saint-Joseph de Beyrouth, Faculté de Sciences Economiques

Economics Bulletin, 2024, vol. 44, issue 1, 140 - 153

Abstract: We use the rolling regression method to estimate the Okun relationship and the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) in Lebanon between 1991 and 2021.We found that a stagflation phenomenon exists, and the NAIRU is high. It turns out that the Okun coefficient is low and unstable. In addition, we show that an increase in the unemployment rate above the NAIRU entails a decrease in the GDP growth rate (under the potential GDP growth rate) and increases the inflation rate.

JEL-codes: E2 O5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-03-30
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