Impact of supply chain pressure on macroeconomy and stock returns – Evidence from US aggregate and sectoral markets

Huimin Li (), Dazhi Zheng () and Xiaowei Zhu ()
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Huimin Li: West Chester University of Pennsylvania
Dazhi Zheng: West Chester University of Pennsylvania
Xiaowei Zhu: West Chester University of Pennsylvania

Economics Bulletin, 2025, vol. 45, issue 1, 370 - 383

Abstract: This study examines the impact of supply chain pressure on macroeconomic variables and stock returns in the U.S. from January 1998 to February 2022, after controlling for monetary policy uncertainty and oil price shock. It is found that change in supply chain pressure has a positive impact on inflation and aggregate stock return and a negative impact on change in industrial output. With respect to the sectoral returns, evidence shows that change in supply chain pressure usually has a positive impact on Basic materials, Consumer staples, Industrials, and Real estate returns. However, during the Covid-19 pandemic, change in supply chain pressure has a significant and negative impact on industrial output and stock return.

Keywords: Supply chain pressure; sectoral stock returns; monetary policy uncertainty; oil price shock (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E5 G1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-03-30
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