Where did it all go wrong for Russia in the 21st Century?

Ivan Korolev ()
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Ivan Korolev: Binghamton University

Economics Bulletin, 2025, vol. 45, issue 3, 1170 - 1193

Abstract: This paper uses the synthetic control method to predict how Russia could have developed under different scenarios in the 21st century. I construct the counterfactual for Russia starting in 2008, when Vladimir Putin's first tenure as president ended; starting in 2012, when Putin became president again; and starting in 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and the Donbas War began. I find that Russia's GDP per capita growth path did not change after the presidential changes of 2008 or 2012; however, after the annexation of Crimea and the start of the Donbas War, the actual GDP per capita lagged behind the counterfactual one, with the gap between them reaching about 20% by 2019.

Keywords: synthetic control method; Russia's economy; Russo-Ukrainian War (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: N4 O1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-09-30
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