Testing for bubbles in the Brazilian commercial real estate market

Enrico Mira (), Wilfredo Maldonado () and Octávio Tourinho ()
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Enrico Mira: University of São Paulo
Wilfredo Maldonado: School of Economics, Business and Accounting - University of São Paulo
Octávio Tourinho: Universidade do Estado de Rio de Janeiro

Economics Bulletin, 2025, vol. 45, issue 3, 1308 - 1325

Abstract: This paper examines the dynamics of commercial real estate prices in Brazil using a monthly series of offer prices from 2012 to 2024 for major Brazilian cities and the whole country. We analyze the price-to-rent ratio and test for the presence of explosive, periodically collapsing, multiple, and intrinsic bubbles using data from the FIPEZAP survey provided by the Institute of Economic Research Foundation (FIPE). Our findings show no evidence of explosive or intrinsic bubbles in any of the series. However, we identify evidence of multiple and recurrent bubbles in some cities, along with instances of overlap between them. These findings suggest the potential influence of common factors that drive their occurrences.

Keywords: Commercial real estate; Speculative bubbles; Brazilian empirical analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C1 G1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-09-30
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