Has COVID-19 shifted the US Phillips curve? An ARDL estimation approach

Luiz Antônio Lima Junior ()
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Luiz Antônio Lima Junior: Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora - Campus GV

Economics Bulletin, 2025, vol. 45, issue 4, 1980 - 1988

Abstract: The Phillips Curve has been one of the main frameworks used in the literature to analyze the trade-off between inflation and unemployment in the USA since the 1960s. However, there is limited literature on the post-pandemic period. This study estimates the Phillips Curve on a monthly basis from 1982 to December 2024, using the ARDL approach. The primary focus of this work is to examine the behavior of the curve during the pandemic period. The main finding is that the slope of the Phillips curve significantly increased in the USA between 2021 and 2024.

Keywords: Philips Curve; Inflation; Covid-19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E2 E5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-12-30
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