The role of breakevens in trend inflation in Brazil

Adonias Costa Filho ()
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Adonias Costa Filho: MONETÁRIA - Centro de Estudos em Macroeconomia e Finanças

Economics Bulletin, 2025, vol. 45, issue 2, 944 - 957

Abstract: This paper obtains estimates of trend inflation and its stochastic volatility for Brazil, through models that incorporate information from breakeven inflation rates and their monthly volatility. Periods with high and low inflation expectations uncertainty are identified and compared to measures of forecast disagreement from survey expectations.

Keywords: Unobserved components model; trend inflation; inflation expectations. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E4 E5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-06-30
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