Geopolitics and investment cycles in the United States

Bahar Ulupinar () and Isa Camyar ()
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Bahar Ulupinar: West Chester University of PA
Isa Camyar: St. Francis College, Brooklyn

Economics Bulletin, 2025, vol. 45, issue 2, 1013 - 1028

Abstract: This study explores the relationship between geopolitical crises and investment cycles in the United States. Using a novel dataset on geopolitical crises over the period of 1960 to 2019, we find that the dimensionality of geopolitical crises (duration, intensity and scope) and the temporal nature of their impact (short-run versus long-run) need to be properly considered when studying the implications of these crises for investment. Our analysis also suggests that geopolitical crises can boost investment spending in the U.S. economy if the United States is not directly involved in them.

Keywords: Geopolitical Crisis; Policy Uncertainty; Investment; the United States (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E2 F5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-06-30
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