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Dynamic interconnections between corruption and economic growth

Helder Rojas (), Macavilca Tello Bartolome (), Kevin Fernandez () and Oscar Cutipa-Luque ()
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Helder Rojas: Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London
Macavilca Tello Bartolome: School of Statistical Engineering, National University of Engineering
Kevin Fernandez: Institute of Geosciences, University of São Paulo
Oscar Cutipa-Luque: School of Statistical Engineering, National University of Engineering

Economics Bulletin, 2025, vol. 45, issue 3, 1485 - 1503

Abstract: This study examines the dynamic relationship between corruption and economic growth, focusing on the transmission mechanisms and contagion channels through which shocks in one country influence economic performance and corruption perceptions in others. Using data from Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the Corruption Perception Index (CPI), we employ a coupled vector autoregressive model to capture the interactions between these variables. The results show that corruption and economic growth are interdependent across countries, with significant spillovers through trade and investment channels. By integrating graph theory and Granger causality, we build a network of interconnections that illustrates how corruption dynamics in one country can influence others, contributing to the "grease vs. sand" debate. These findings provide insights for designing policies that promote transparency and sustainable economic development.

Keywords: Corruption; Gross Domestic Product (GDP); Granger Causality; Economic Contagion Networks; Complex Systems. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C4 H7 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-09-30
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