Does crime reduce fertility? Evidence from Jamaica

Kevin Williams () and Christopher Smith ()
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Kevin Williams: The University of the West Indies, Mona Campus, Kingston, Jamaica
Christopher Smith: School of Global Business, Miami Dade College, Kendall Campus

Economics Bulletin, 2025, vol. 45, issue 4, 1898 - 1914

Abstract: Jamaica has experienced a rapid decline in fertility over the past few decades, alongside persistently high levels of serious crime. However, no prior research has explored whether and how these two phenomena are linked. We use data comprised of several categories of crime to estimate the effect of crime on fertility in Jamaica. We find that the fertility of adolescent and older women responds differently to crime. While total crime reduces fertility among adolescent women, we find no effect on fertility for older women. However, serious crime reduces fertility in both groups, with a stronger impact among younger women. We provide an explanation for this heterogeneity. Our findings suggest that policymakers formulate innovative strategies to curb crime, as fertility has long-term implications for economic development.

JEL-codes: J1 K4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-12-30
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