The macroeconomic and food security impacts of extreme precipitation shocks in Liberia

Pedro Juarros () and Suphachol Suphachalasai ()
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Pedro Juarros: International Monetary Fund
Suphachol Suphachalasai: International Monetary Fund

Economics Bulletin, 2026, vol. 46, issue 3, 1202 - 1213

Abstract: Extreme precipitation and floods are Liberia's main climate hazards, endangering food security, health, and macroeconomic stability, and exacerbated by limited adaptive capacity. This paper estimates the short-term macroeconomic impacts of extreme precipitation shocks using newly available high-resolution, high-frequency climate data to capture short-duration, high-intensity rainfall events. The results show that such shocks reduce food production by 1.6 percentage points (p.p.), lower per capita GDP growth by 3.3 p.p., and raise inflation by about 2 p.p. These findings suggest that strengthening climate resilience may help mitigate the macroeconomic vulnerabilities associated with extreme rainfall events and highlight the potential importance of climate-resilient infrastructure, adaptive agricultural investment, and other adaptation measures.

Keywords: Extreme precipitations; food security; inflation; GDP impacts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E3 Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-09-30
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