The Trump tariffs and intraday risk spillovers in the global financial markets

Yusaku Nishimura (), Yang Ji () and Bianxia Sun ()
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Yusaku Nishimura: University of International Business and Economics
Yang Ji: University of International Business and Economics
Bianxia Sun: Southern University of Science and Technology

Economics Bulletin, 2026, vol. 46, issue 2, 756 - 766

Abstract: This paper empirically investigates the impact of the Trump tariffs announced on April 2 on intraday risk spillovers across global financial markets. We estimate the intraday volatility spillover index using a TVP-VAR model with five-minute data from major global financial markets. Our results show that Trump tariffs and the ensuing US-China trade conflict impact intraday volatility spillovers across stocks, foreign exchange, commodities, and cryptocurrency markets. Moreover, volatility spillovers peak on days when multiple countries announce tariff-related policies simultaneously. It is also evidenced that net volatility spillovers across the four markets changed after the Trump tariffs announcement, with particularly significant changes in the foreign exchange market. The empirical results suggest that US policies perceived as aggressive toward other nations, along with the retaliatory measures they provoke, heighten market volatility and intensify risk spillovers in global financial markets.

Keywords: Intraday volatility spillover; Trump tariffs; US-China trade conflict; High-frequency data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F1 G1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-06-30
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