Short-term forecasting of euro area economic activity at the ECB
Marta Banbura () and
Economic Bulletin Articles, 2020, vol. 2
This article first stresses the importance for a central bank of having a reliable quantitative framework for obtaining a real-time assessment of developments in economic activity in the near term and discusses associated challenges. Second, it presents the framework for short-term forecasting of euro area real GDP growth used at the ECB. The article evaluates the forecast performance of the framework, also comparing it with the Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projections. It also illustrates how the framework is used to i) analyse the role that data surprises play in the revisions to the outlook and ii) assess risks to the projections. It concludes by pointing out directions for future work. JEL Classification: C33, C53, E32, E37, E52
Keywords: bridge equations; predictive distributions; short-term forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/economic-bulletin/a ... 2~47da9ba4f7.en.html (text/html)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecb:ecbart:2020:0002:2
Access Statistics for this article
More articles in Economic Bulletin Articles from European Central Bank 60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Official Publications ().