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Short-term forecasting of euro area economic activity at the ECB

Marta Banbura () and Lorena Saiz

Economic Bulletin Articles, 2020, vol. 2

Abstract: This article first stresses the importance for a central bank of having a reliable quantitative framework for obtaining a real-time assessment of developments in economic activity in the near term and discusses associated challenges. Second, it presents the framework for short-term forecasting of euro area real GDP growth used at the ECB. The article evaluates the forecast performance of the framework, also comparing it with the Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projections. It also illustrates how the framework is used to i) analyse the role that data surprises play in the revisions to the outlook and ii) assess risks to the projections. It concludes by pointing out directions for future work. JEL Classification: C33, C53, E32, E37, E52

Keywords: bridge equations; predictive distributions; short-term forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-03
Note: 810771
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbart:2020:0002:2