Selling price expectations for services: what do they tell us about consumer price pressures?

Elena Bobeica, Joan Paredes, Théodore Renault and Flavie Rousseau

Economic Bulletin Boxes, 2024, vol. 5

Abstract: Available surveys of selling price expectations of firms for the euro area point to price dynamics that have substantially moderated after the recent large inflationary shock, albeit with a more sluggish adjustment for services than for goods. This box focuses on services and investigates the leading indicator properties of the forward-looking survey data provided by the European Commission. These data tend to anticipate notable turning points in services inflation. In addition, in a forecasting exercise, we find that their leading properties manifest in a non-linear way and are particularly useful in unusual times, such as during the recent inflation spike. JEL Classification: E31, E37, D84

Keywords: inflation; non-linearity; Selling price expectations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-08
Note: 2382002
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