Consumer expectations and actions during the recent trade tensions

Adam Baumann, Luca Caprari, Maarten Dossche, Georgi Kocharkov and Omiros Kouvavas

Economic Bulletin Boxes, 2025, vol. 6

Abstract: Recent trade tensions and tariff announcements are significantly influencing the behaviour and expectations of European consumers. As revealed by the June 2025 Consumer Expectations Survey, consumers expect tariffs to drive up inflation, weaken household finances and dampen economic growth. In response, consumers are reducing overall spending or switching away from US products. While lower-income households are likely to cut back on spending, high-income households are more likely to substitute goods. These findings highlight the tangible impact of trade tensions and uncertainty introduced by tariffs on inflation and growth expectations, consumer behaviour and, possibly, broader economic developments. JEL Classification: D12, D84, F14

Keywords: Consumer expectations; Tariffs (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-09
Note: 3577821
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