Fully Modified Least Squares and Vector Autoregression

Peter Phillips

Econometrica, 1995, vol. 63, issue 5, 1023-78

Abstract: This paper provides a general framework which makes it possible to study the asymptotic behavior of FM regression in models with I(1) and I(0) regressors, models with unit roots, and models with only stationary regressors. This framework enables us to consider the use of FM regression in the context of vector autoregressions with some unit roots and some cointegrating relations. The resulting FM-VAR regressions are shown to produce optimal estimates of the cointegration space without prior knowledge of the number of unit roots in the system, without pretesting to determine the dimension of the cointegration space and without the use of restricted regression techniques like reduced rank regression. The paper also develops an asymptotic theory for inference. It is shown that conventional chi-squared critical values can be used to construct valid (but conservative) asymptotic tests in quite general FM time series regression. Copyright 1995 by The Econometric Society.

Date: 1995
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Working Paper: Fully Modified Least Squares and Vector Autoregression (1993)
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