The stochastic SEIR model before extinction: Computational approaches

J.R. Artalejo, A. Economou and M.J. Lopez-Herrero

Applied Mathematics and Computation, 2015, vol. 265, issue C, 1026-1043

Abstract: We study a stochastic epidemic model of Susceptible-Exposed-Infective-Removed (SEIR) type and we quantify its behavior during an outbreak. More specifically, we model the epidemic by a continuous-time Markov chain and we develop efficient computational procedures for the distribution of the duration of an outbreak. We also study the evolution of the epidemic before its extinction using the ratio-of-expectations (RE) distribution for the number of individuals in the various classes of the model. The obtained results are illustrated by numerical examples including an application to an outbreak of Marburg hemorrhagic fever.

Keywords: Stochastic SEIR epidemic model; Extinction time; Ratio-of-expectations distribution (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:apmaco:v:265:y:2015:i:c:p:1026-1043

DOI: 10.1016/j.amc.2015.05.141

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