EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

A modified SEIR model for the spread of Ebola in Western Africa and metrics for resource allocation

Paul Diaz, Paul Constantine, Kelsey Kalmbach, Eric Jones and Stephen Pankavich

Applied Mathematics and Computation, 2018, vol. 324, issue C, 141-155

Abstract: A modified, deterministic SEIR model is developed for the 2014 Ebola epidemic occurring in the West African nations of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. The model describes the dynamical interaction of susceptible and infected populations, while accounting for the effects of hospitalization and the spread of disease through interactions with deceased, but infectious, individuals. Using data from the World Health Organization (WHO), parameters within the model are fit to recent estimates of infected and deceased cases from each nation. The model is then analyzed using these parameter values. Finally, several metrics are proposed to determine which of these nations is in greatest need of additional resources to combat the spread of infection. These include local and global sensitivity metrics of both the infected population and the basic reproduction number with respect to rates of hospitalization and proper burial.

Keywords: Epidemiology; Ebola; Uncertainty quantification; Active subspaces; Stability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0096300317308214
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:apmaco:v:324:y:2018:i:c:p:141-155

Access Statistics for this article

Applied Mathematics and Computation is currently edited by Theodore Simos

More articles in Applied Mathematics and Computation from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Dana Niculescu ().

 
Page updated 2018-11-03
Handle: RePEc:eee:apmaco:v:324:y:2018:i:c:p:141-155