Transitions between metastable states in a simplified model for the thermohaline circulation under random fluctuations

Daniel Tesfay, Pingyuan Wei, Yayun Zheng, Jinqiao Duan and Jürgen Kurths

Applied Mathematics and Computation, 2020, vol. 369, issue C

Abstract: In this work we study the impact of non-Gaussian α-stable Lévy motion on transitions between metastable equilibrium states (or attractors) in a stochastic Stommel two-compartment model for the thermohaline circulation. By maximizing probability density of the solution process associated with a nonlocal Fokker-Planck equation, we compute maximal likely pathways and identify corresponding maximal likely stable equilibrium states. Our numerical results indicate that random fluctuations with small intensity induces a weakened thermohaline circulation when the Lévy noise stability index is from 0.1 to 0.7.

Keywords: Maximal likely pathways; Thermohaline circulation; Lévy motion; Stommel two compartment-model; Fokker-Planck equation, (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:apmaco:v:369:y:2020:i:c:s0096300319308604

DOI: 10.1016/j.amc.2019.124868

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