Influence of very large spatial heterogeneity on estimates of sea-level trends

Alexander Shapoval, J.-L. Le Mouël, V. Courtillot and M. Shnirman

Applied Mathematics and Computation, 2020, vol. 386, issue C

Abstract: We propose a new method to estimate sub-decadal to centennial time scales of sea-level change. Since the coastal data exhibit large spatial heterogeneity and temporal variability, the global sea-level rate is estimated as an appropriate average of the rates observed at available locations and computed with sliding windows. We claim that under such heterogeneity the median serves as a better representative of an adequate average than the mean. With this approach, the sea-level rate in 60 to 70 yr windows over the past century is found to be smaller than 1.7-1.9 mm/yr. These upper estimates are in line with those obtained with a scarce list of available long quasi-gapless series.

Keywords: Sea-level rise; Median; Sliding window; Statistically significant trend (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:apmaco:v:386:y:2020:i:c:s0096300320304446

DOI: 10.1016/j.amc.2020.125485

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