New global dynamical results and application of several SVEIS epidemic models with temporary immunity

Lianwen Wang, Zhijun Liu, Caihong Guo, Yong Li and Xinan Zhang

Applied Mathematics and Computation, 2021, vol. 390, issue C

Abstract: This work applies a novel geometric criterion for global stability of nonlinear autonomous differential equations generalized by Lu and Lu (2017) to establish global threshold dynamics for several SVEIS epidemic models with temporary immunity, incorporating saturated incidence and nonmonotone incidence with psychological effect, and an SVEIS model with saturated incidence and partial temporary immunity. Incidentally, global stability for the SVEIS models with saturated incidence in Cai and Li (2009), Sahu and Dhar (2012) is completely solved. Furthermore, employing the DEDiscover simulation tool, the parameters in Sahu and Dhar’model are estimated with the 2009–2010 pandemic H1N1 case data in Hong Kong China, and it is validated that the vaccination programme indeed avoided subsequent potential outbreak waves of the pandemic. Finally, global sensitivity analysis reveals that multiple control measures should be utilized jointly to cut down the peak of the waves dramatically and delay the arrival of the second wave, thereinto timely vaccination is particularly effective.

Keywords: Global stability; Vaccination; Temporary immunity; Nonlinear incidence; Li-Muldowney geometric criterion; Parameter estimation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:apmaco:v:390:y:2021:i:c:s0096300320306020

DOI: 10.1016/j.amc.2020.125648

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