Bayesian rules and stochastic models for high accuracy prediction of solar radiation

Cyril Voyant, Christophe Darras, Marc Muselli, Christophe Paoli, Marie-Laure Nivet and Philippe Poggi

Applied Energy, 2014, vol. 114, issue C, 218-226

Abstract: It is essential to find solar predictive methods to massively insert renewable energies on the electrical distribution grid. The goal of this study is to find the best methodology allowing predicting with high accuracy the hourly global radiation. The knowledge of this quantity is essential for the grid manager or the private PV producer in order to anticipate fluctuations related to clouds occurrences and to stabilize the injected PV power. In this paper, we test both methodologies: single and hybrid predictors. In the first class, we include the multi-layer perceptron (MLP), auto-regressive and moving average (ARMA), and persistence models. In the second class, we mix these predictors with Bayesian rules to obtain ad hoc models selections, and Bayesian averages of outputs related to single models. If MLP and ARMA are equivalent (nRMSE close to 40.5% for the both), this hybridization allows a nRMSE gain upper than 14% points compared to the persistence estimation (nRMSE=37% versus 51%).

Keywords: Mutual information; Pressure; Artifical neural network; Autoregressive and moving average model; Hybrid; Bayes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (25)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:appene:v:114:y:2014:i:c:p:218-226

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DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2013.09.051

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