Modeling an aggressive energy-efficiency scenario in long-range load forecasting for electric power transmission planning

Alan H. Sanstad, Stuart McMenamin, Andrew Sukenik, Galen L. Barbose and Charles A. Goldman

Applied Energy, 2014, vol. 128, issue C, 265-276

Abstract: Improving the representation of end-use energy efficiency, and of the effects of policies and programs to promote it, is an emergent priority for electricity load forecasting models and methods. This paper describes a “hybrid” load forecasting approach combining econometric and technological elements that is designed to meet this need, in a novel application to long-run electric power transmission planning in the western United States. A twenty-year load forecast incorporating significant increases in energy-efficiency programs and policies across multiple locations was developed in order to assess the potential of efficiency to reduce load growth and requirements for expanded transmission capacity. Load forecasting and transmission planning background is summarized, the theoretical and empirical aspects of the hybrid methodology described, and the assumptions, structure, data development, and results of the aggressive efficiency scenario are presented. The analysis shows that substantial electricity savings are possible in this scenario in most residential and commercial end-uses, and in the industrial sector, with magnitudes depending upon the specific end-use as well as upon the geographic location of the utility or other entity providing the electricity.

Keywords: Load forecasting; Energy efficiency; Transmission planning (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261914004590
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:appene:v:128:y:2014:i:c:p:265-276

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/bibliographic
http://www.elsevier. ... 405891/bibliographic

DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.04.096

Access Statistics for this article

Applied Energy is currently edited by J. Yan

More articles in Applied Energy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().