Power system sensitivity to extreme hydrological conditions as studied using an integrated reservoir and power system dispatch model, the case of Ethiopia

Ashenafi A. Demissie and A.A. Solomon

Applied Energy, 2016, vol. 182, issue C, 442-463

Abstract: Extreme weather events expose electricity industry to diverse risks. Global warming will increase vulnerability to extreme weathers, such as drought. In this paper, we examine the susceptibility of Ethiopian power systems to extreme hydrological conditions using an integrated hydro reservoir and power system dispatch model. The result shows that hydropower could help in achieving the least cost generation of electricity by 2017. However, the cost of electricity was found to significantly vary with various factors. It was found that, excluding cost of unserved energy, the low inflow scenario presents a situation where cost of electricity is approximately 4 times higher than the moderate inflow. Electricity price is currently cheap and stable due to governments pricing strategy. Consequently, the cost borne by the nation’s economy could be seen from annual cost of dispatch, which increases from approximately 1 billion USD per year at the reference scenario to about 4 Billion USD for the low inflow scenario. The dispatch cost will be above 8 folds if the cost of unserved energy is included. This shows that the power system is poorly resilient against climate change impact. Thus, we recommend that policymaking and planning focuses on transitioning to climate change adaptive system.

Keywords: Hydropower; Reservoir operation; Power system; Economic dispatch; Renewable energy; Drought (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261916312041
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:appene:v:182:y:2016:i:c:p:442-463

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/bibliographic
http://www.elsevier. ... 405891/bibliographic

DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.08.106

Access Statistics for this article

Applied Energy is currently edited by J. Yan

More articles in Applied Energy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().