Portfolio selection of distributed energy generation projects considering uncertainty and project interaction under different enterprise strategic scenarios

Yunna Wu, Chuanbo Xu, Yiming Ke, Xinying Li and Lingwenying Li

Applied Energy, 2019, vol. 236, issue C, 444-464

Abstract: Selecting a rational distributed energy generation (DEG) project portfolio is the key to achieving the strategic objectives of energy enterprises. The complexity associated with the selection of DEG project portfolio comes from uncertainties in decision-making environment, interactions between projects, and necessary alignment with the strategic objectives of enterprises. However, previous researches did not address the three issues simultaneously. To fill such gap, this study establishes a multi-criteria decision-making framework to select the optimal DEG project portfolio(s) under different strategic scenarios, where uncertainty and project interaction are considered. The framework consists of two stages. In the first phase, the weights of criteria are determined by the interval type-2 fuzzy analytic hierarchy process technique, and the strategic alignment indexes of each candidate distributed energy generation project are obtained using the interval type-2 fuzzy weighted averaging operator. In the second stage, considering the strategic interactions, a nonlinear 0-1 programming is formulated while satisfying the budget constraints, and the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II is utilized to obtain the optimal portfolio of DEG projects under different strategic scenarios. The proposed framework is applied in a case study to illustrate its suitability and effectiveness. The results show that the selected portfolios vary with the strategic objectives of enterprises. This research has practical applied value for project managers in project portfolio management.

Keywords: Distributed energy source; Project portfolio; Multi-criteria decision-making; Interval type-2 fuzzy analytic hierarchy process; Interval type-2 fuzzy weighted averaging; non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (15)

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DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.12.009

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