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Impact of oil price fluctuations on tanker maritime network structure and traffic flow changes

Hongchu Yu, Zhixiang Fang, Feng Lu, Alan T. Murray, Hengcai Zhang, Peng Peng, Qiang Mei and Jinhai Chen

Applied Energy, 2019, vol. 237, issue C, 390-403

Abstract: Understanding maritime network structure and traffic flow changes is a challenging task that must incorporate economic, energy, geopolitics, maritime transportation, and network sciences. The reported research examines whether there are linkages between oil price fluctuations, maritime network structure and traffic flow changes, and investigates whether tanker maritime network structure and traffic flow changes are driven by oil price fluctuations. This is essential knowledge for developing strategies energy policies. To address this, a systems-based approach is introduced to construct a maritime transportation network based on trajectory data. The maritime network structure and traffic flow changes are derived from monthly transport. Supporting methods were then used to reveal two-way linkages, long-term balance relationships and shock responses attributable to oil price fluctuations, the maritime network structure and traffic flow changes. Evidence suggests that there are different two-way linkages between oil price fluctuations, maritime network structure and traffic flow changes in oil import- dependent and export-dependent countries. International crude oil price fluctuations contribute to maritime network structure changes for many of the countries examined, and showed rapid growth peaks in the second or third month. Our results have important policy implications for national tanker transportation strategies within the context of oil price fluctuations, suggesting diversification of import origins and export destinations as well as adjustment of shipping mode to cope with the supply shocks caused by oil price fluctuations.

Keywords: Oil price; Maritime network structure; Traffic flow changes; Automatic identification system; Granger causality test; Vector autoregressive method (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.01.011

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