Modelling and forecasting hourly electricity demand in West African countries
Omotola Adeoye and
Applied Energy, 2019, vol. 242, issue C, 311-333
The Economic Community of West African States aims to achieve 100% electrification rates by 2030 in all member countries. To achieve this ambitious target, electricity generation capacities need to be increased significantly. Forecasting hourly electricity demand is imperative for capacity planners in optimizing investment options and ensuring reliable electricity supply. However, modelling hourly electricity demand in developing countries can be a challenge due to paucity of historical demand data and methodological frameworks that adequately capture technology transitions and urban-rural communities. In this study, we address this gap by developing an hourly electricity demand model for 14 West African countries in the year 2016 and 2030. The model takes into account electrification rates, available household appliances, occupancy patterns of household members, type of day, available daylight hours and hourly weather conditions. Annual electricity demand in non-residential sectors and electricity access rates in urban and rural households are forecasted using multiple regression analysis. We validated the developed model using actual 2016 monthly and annual electricity demand data. The results show the seasonal variations of electricity demand, with hourly electricity demand in dry seasons relatively higher than demand in wet seasons. The results also indicate that in 2030, electricity demand in the West African region is estimated to be five times its 2016 level. The methodology presented in this study can be applicable for modelling hourly electricity demand in developing countries that have scarce historical hourly demand data, a significant electricity supply-demand gap, and varying electricity access rates in urban and rural areas.
Keywords: Electricity demand modelling; West Africa; Developing countries; Residential demand; Demand forecasting; Hourly electricity demand (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:appene:v:242:y:2019:i:c:p:311-333
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.elsevier. ... 405891/bibliographic
Access Statistics for this article
Applied Energy is currently edited by J. Yan
More articles in Applied Energy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Dana Niculescu ().