Surrogate-assisted robust design optimization and global sensitivity analysis of a directly coupled photovoltaic-electrolyzer system under techno-economic uncertainty

Diederik Coppitters, Ward De Paepe and Francesco Contino

Applied Energy, 2019, vol. 248, issue C, 310-320

Abstract: To match intermittent solar energy supply with energy demand, power-to-hydrogen is a viable solution. In this framework, designing a directly coupled photovoltaic-electrolyzer system assuming deterministic parameters (i.e.perfectly known and fixed parameters) is widely studied. However, considering deterministic model parameters in optimization disregards the inherent uncertainty of the system performance during real-life operation (e.g.due to unexpected costs or ineffective maintenance), leading to a fragile, suboptimal direct coupling of the photovoltaic array with the electrolyzer stack. To avoid a suboptimal coupling, we performed a design optimization under parameter uncertainties (i.e.robust design optimization). This paper provides the deterministic designs, robust designs and a global sensitivity analysis on the hydrogen production and levelized cost of hydrogen. The technical robust design provides a 43% reduction in hydrogen production standard deviation compared to the deterministic design, while the robust, cost-efficient design achieves a mean levelized cost of hydrogen of 6.4€/kg and standard deviation of 0.74€/kg. The discount rate and capital expenditure parameters dominate the standard deviation by 52% and 39% respectively. Therefore, bulk manufacturing of these technologies and more demonstration projects are the main actions to improve the robustness. Future works will focus on including accurate probability distributions, a demand load, the grid and batteries to the system.

Keywords: Photovoltaic-electrolyzer system; Levelized cost of hydrogen; Robust design optimization; Uncertainty quantification; Global sensitivity analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (15)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261919307573
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:appene:v:248:y:2019:i:c:p:310-320

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/bibliographic
http://www.elsevier. ... 405891/bibliographic

DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.04.101

Access Statistics for this article

Applied Energy is currently edited by J. Yan

More articles in Applied Energy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().