Carbon peaking strategies for industrial parks: Model development and applications in China

Yizheng Lyu, Hanbo Gao, Kun Yan, Yingjie Liu, Jinping Tian, Lyujun Chen and Mei Wan

Applied Energy, 2022, vol. 322, issue C, No S0306261922007735

Abstract: Industrial carbon emission reduction is an important target for most countries. China pledges to achieve carbon dioxide peaking and neutrality before 2030 and 2060 respectively where industrial parks agglomerate most of the manufacturing industries and contribute much to the total CO2 emission; thus, it is of great significance to explore appropriate CO2 peaking strategies for the parks. We develop a land-industry-carbon integrated model that jointly projects land availability, land productivity, industrial structure, CO2 emissions, and carbon productivity (the ratio of gross industrial output value to CO2 emission) of industrial parks to quantitatively elucidate the CO2 peaking strategies. This study applies the model to four typical medium and large-sized Chinese industrial manufacturing parks. We analyze the characteristics of energy consumptions and CO2 emissions and reveal the parks have CO2 reduction potential ranging from 52% to 73% driven by carbon productivity improvement and industrial structure adjustment. Two parks could peak CO2 emissions before 2025 and realize the absolute decoupling of economic development from CO2 emissions during 2020–2030. Their carbon productivities will be 1.54 and 1.61 times in 2025 and both 2.78 times in 2030 compared with those in 2020. Another two parks tend to step from relative decoupling during 2020–2025 to absolute decoupling later, and their CO2 emissions will peak before 2030 with 2.08- and 3.70-times carbon productivities as much as those in 2020. Based on the model applications, two synergistic carbon peaking pathways are proposed for Chinese industrial parks, including (1) reallocating CO2 caps among industries considering land and carbon productivities, (2) facilitating the carbon productivity improvement for the stock industries and setting thresholds of carbon productivity for the forthcoming incremental industries. Customized strategies are also developed for the four parks. The model can provide both a pragmatic paradigm for industrial carbon peaking and policy support for global industrial parks.

Keywords: CO2 emission; CO2 peaking and neutralization; Industrial structure adjustment; Industrial parks; China (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

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DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119442

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