Dispatch optimization of a concentrating solar power system under uncertain solar irradiance and energy prices

Gökçe Kahvecioğlu, David P. Morton and Michael J. Wagner

Applied Energy, 2022, vol. 326, issue C, No S0306261922012351

Abstract: The integration of thermal energy storage into a concentrating solar power system allows for mitigating some of the risk associated with uncertain solar irradiance and uncertain energy prices. We solve a 48 h dispatch optimization model with continually updated conditional point forecasts of both direct normal irradiance (DNI) and electricity prices with a rolling-horizon scheme at hourly resolution over the course of a year. Joint, conditional forecasts for DNI and prices are formed using an autoregressive moving-average time series model with exogenous weather predictors. We guide dispatch using a mixed-integer programming model, but in order to evaluate performance we use the System Advisor Model (SAM) of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. SAM is a techno-economic simulation model that accounts for plant thermodynamics with higher fidelity. Our conditional DNI forecasts improve annual revenue by 4%–12% over using historical forecasts based on data from previous years. Conditional price forecasts improve annual revenue by 6%–19% in the real-time market over analogous historical forecasts. Updating these forecasts every six hours, rather than every 24 h, further improves annual revenue by 5%–6%. We also investigate a method that values terminal inventory in our dispatch optimization model, again when used in a rolling-horizon scheme.

Keywords: Optimization; Simulation; Thermal storage (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119978

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