Optimal offering strategy for wind-storage systems under correlated wind production

Sepehr Dirin, Morteza Rahimiyan and Luis Baringo

Applied Energy, 2023, vol. 333, issue C, No S0306261922018098

Abstract: This paper formulates the offering problem for a cluster of wind-storage systems in the day-ahead energy market using a risk-constrained stochastic programming approach that anticipates different operating conditions in the real-time energy market. Wind-storage systems can be jointly operated as a cluster so as to achieve higher profitability. However, a meaningful positive correlation among the production provided by wind farms located in the cluster results in a higher level of uncertainty that imposes additional risk. A key issue is how this correlation influences the operation of the cluster in the energy markets. In order to study this subject, this paper presents the uncertainties involved by means of a number of correlated scenarios including: (i) the correlated prices in the day-ahead and the real-time markets, and (ii) the correlated wind power production of multiple wind farms jointly generated using an innovative scenario generation methodology. The comparative statistical analysis validates the good accuracy of the method proposed in order to capture the spatio-temporal correlation among the wind farms. The results of a realistic case study are, moreover, compared with those obtained by considering that the scenarios are generated individually for each wind farm. Upon considering the latter, the variability of wind power production is underestimated, which has a negligible impact on the expected profit; however, the profit risk modeled using the conditional value-at-risk is significantly overestimated. The overestimation error particularly concerns a less risk-averse operator of the cluster in the case of low wind power production.

Keywords: Conditional value-at-risk; Correlated scenarios; Offering strategy; Stochastic programming; Wind-storage systems (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.120552

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