The impact of heat electrification on the seasonal and interannual electricity demand of Great Britain

Malcolm Peacock, Aikaterini Fragaki and Bogdan J Matuszewski

Applied Energy, 2023, vol. 337, issue C, No S0306261923002490

Abstract: Amongst all future developments it is the electrification of heat that is anticipated to have the largest impact on seasonal and interannual electricity demand. There is therefore a need to accurately quantify and assess this impact. This paper uses a combination of existing advanced techniques to modify the historic electricity demand to incorporate the impact of heat pumps alone for long-term historic weather data using Great Britain as an example. The methods for generating time series were compared and extensively validated. This includes comparisons with measured data that have not been used previously for this purpose. The research reveals that for predicted 2050 heat pump penetration levels the monthly demand for electricity doubles in winter. This leads to an increase of approximately 30 TWh for each winter month and a 37 % increase in year-to-year variability of electricity demand due to weather. Peak electricity demand is very sensitive to the method of generating heat demand and the assumptions on hourly heat pump operating profiles, suggesting inaccuracies of 25 % in estimates of future peak demand. This work, rather than just assessing the impact of projected changes provides a reference case for policy makers to guide the decision process and planning for future scenarios.

Keywords: Electricity demand; Electrification of heat; Heat pumps; Interannual weather (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.120885

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