Evaluating the most significant input parameters for forecasting global solar radiation of different sequences based on Informer

Chengcheng Jiang and Qunzhi Zhu

Applied Energy, 2023, vol. 348, issue C, No S030626192300908X

Abstract: The number of existing global solar radiation (GSR) observation stations is limited, and it is challenging to meet the demand for scientific research and production. Different forecasting horizons of solar radiation correspond to various applications. Therefore, it is critical to design realistic models to predict the GSR of varying sequence lengths. This study proposes a prediction model based on the analysis of the Pearson correlation between GSR and each input parameter and the establishment of different input combinations related to the result of Pearson analysis in four high-quality datasets. The proposed Informer model compares the results with five classical machine learning models on four datasets with R2, RMSE, and skill score (S) as evaluation metrics. This study examines the proposed model's prediction performance for five prediction lengths, four climate zones, three sampling frequencies, and two input types. The results showed that the Informer model performs well with the clearness index and pressure as the input. Besides, the RRMSE values are less than 10% under optimal input in long sequence forecasting. The findings suggested that the proposed advanced Informer model is a reliable alternative for GSR prediction due to its high predictive accuracy under diverse prediction lengths, sampling frequencies, climate zones, and the number of input parameters.

Keywords: Global solar radiation (GSR); Pearson; Informer; Clearness index; Pressure; Optimal input; Long sequence forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030626192300908X
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:appene:v:348:y:2023:i:c:s030626192300908x

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/bibliographic
http://www.elsevier. ... 405891/bibliographic

DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121544

Access Statistics for this article

Applied Energy is currently edited by J. Yan

More articles in Applied Energy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().