Short-term prediction of integrated energy load aggregation using a bi-directional simple recurrent unit network with feature-temporal attention mechanism ensemble learning model

Qin Yan, Zhiying Lu, Hong Liu, Xingtang He, Xihai Zhang and Jianlin Guo

Applied Energy, 2024, vol. 355, issue C, No S0306261923015234

Abstract: In the realm of economic scheduling and optimal operation within integrated energy systems, integrated energy load aggregation plays a pivotal role. Accurate prediction of integrated energy load aggregation enables the refined management of energy resources, thereby enhancing energy utilization efficiency. This paper merges the advantages of clustering algorithms, prediction algorithms and ensemble learning to propose a short-term prediction approach for integrated energy load aggregation. Firstly, the intrinsic distribution of energy consumption data is analyzed through Affinity Propagation (AP) clustering with multi-dimensional similarity. This analysis yields the division of all samples into clusters based on data characteristics. Subsequently, the Transfer entropy is harnessed to conduct correlation analysis within each cluster. For constructing predictive models for each individual cluster, a prediction algorithm based on the Feature-Temporal Attention-enhanced Bi-directional Simple Recurrent Unit (FTA-Bi-SRU) is employed. The Dynamic Weight Average (DWA)-based multi-task loss equilibrium and Multi-Term Adam (MTAdam) loss function are combined to enhance the efficiency of the forecasting model. Finally, a Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) model with Bayesian optimization is employed to integrate the predictive outcomes of each individual cluster to generate the overall predictive outcomes for integrated energy load aggregation. The proposed methodology is experimented on real-world energy consumption data to ascertain the efficacy of the prediction method. The experimental results substantiate the superiority of the suggested forecasting approach.

Keywords: Integrated energy load aggregation; Short-term load forecasting; Cluster analysis; Ensemble learning (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.122159

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