A novel combined probabilistic load forecasting system integrating hybrid quantile regression and knee improved multi-objective optimization strategy

Yi Yang, Qianyi Xing, Kang Wang, Caihong Li, Jianzhou Wang and Xiaojia Huang

Applied Energy, 2024, vol. 356, issue C, No S0306261923017051

Abstract: In contemporary power systems, diverse energy integration and technological advancements have complicated load dynamics, revealing limitations in traditional deterministic forecasting techniques. Given the pivotal role of Probabilistic Load Forecasting (PLF) in mitigating risks in power system planning and operation, the pursuit of more accurate PLF techniques has evidently become a topic of paramount importance. Therefore, in this study, a novel hybrid Quantile Regression (QR) model integrating causal dilated convolution, residual connection, and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) is initially proposed for PLF, its core multi-scale feature extraction module can deeply mine the interactions between loads and their features. However, relying solely on a single-model often encounters inherent flaws in certain scenarios. Recognizing this, a Combined Probabilistic Load Forecasting System (CPLFS) is further proposed. This system incorporates the developed hybrid QR to establish a diversified candidate model pool, aiming to select the top-performing benchmarks in various scenarios and utilizes the Knee enhanced Pareto mechanism to adjust the combined weights of each benchmark, thereby bridging the gap created by the “No Free Lunch (NFL)” phenomenon. Taking the load uncertainty of Australia as an illustrative example, simulations indicate that the hybrid QR outperforms traditional models. Furthermore, CPLFS surpasses the best benchmarks and other combinations in both prediction accuracy and stability.

Keywords: Benchmarks selection; Combined probabilistic prediction; Mutual information; Hybrid quantile regression; Knee- enhanced intelligent optimization (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261923017051
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:appene:v:356:y:2024:i:c:s0306261923017051

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/bibliographic
http://www.elsevier. ... 405891/bibliographic

DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.122341

Access Statistics for this article

Applied Energy is currently edited by J. Yan

More articles in Applied Energy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().