Relationship between feature importance and building characteristics for heating load predictions

Alexander Neubauer, Stefan Brandt and Martin Kriegel

Applied Energy, 2024, vol. 359, issue C, No S0306261924000515

Abstract: The use of machine learning in building technology has become increasingly important in recent years. One of the applications is heating load prediction, which enables demand-side flexibility. Most studies consider the heating load prediction without sufficient context with the existing building characteristics. For an accurate load prediction, suitable features have to be selected according to their importance, the feature importance (FI). The scope of this paper is to investigate whether there is a relationship between the building characteristics and the FI and if so, how strong this relationship is. Additionally, an analysis has been conducted to determine which building characteristic have the most significant impact on FI. For this purpose, a full factorial design of a room with six different building characteristics is carried out. In total, the heating load is calculated for 15552 room variants. The thermal balance, correlation, random forest FI, permutation FI and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values are calculated for these different rooms. The local SHAP values were used to explain the model. These values also provide insight into the interaction of individual features with the heating load. For most variants, the outdoor temperature had the highest FI. It is investigated which building characteristics have the greatest influence on the thermal balance, correlation, FI and SHAP values. A relationship was found between the proportion of thermal balance, the correlation between the features and the label as well as the FI. The greatest association with the thermal balance characteristics was found for the SHAP values. The study shows the systematic relationship between building characteristics and FI. Therefore, FI should always be considered in the context of building characteristics.

Keywords: Heating load prediction; Building characteristic; Correlation; Feature importance; SHAP values; Model explainability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.122668

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